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Increasing apprehensions have emerged about the possibility of warfare between East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as hostile discourse has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Did Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has provoked a fierce verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in 2023 that his nation's sea access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have regularly been difficult. Following a decades-long fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a long maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it without sea access.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict erupted in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Current Statements from Ethiopian Government

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrea's maritime facility of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and hinted at the wish to take it by force.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "blunder" of losing entry to the sea as a because of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrea's Response to the Statements

In the face of ongoing threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to concise remarks on X from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for sea access describing it as "risky" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a strategy of reclaiming former lands.

The information ministry cautioned on mid-September that attempts to justify "blatant hostility" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Border

Currently, there are few indications of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast completion events of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The director of personnel division of the military, General Hachalu, stated recently in an interview that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Past Roots of the Conflict

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was ruled by Italian colonisers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the British military before becoming a associated territory of Ethiopia.

But in the early 1960s the ruler cancelled this system and Eritrea became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year internal conflict occurred, concluding with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then approved by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their common border, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations remained at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two agreed to a declaration that the conflict was finished – a move that won the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The neighboring states were then partners in the country's previous armed struggle in the northern region.

Yet relations have later worsened once more.