A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
